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Messages - UB92

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1
Buffalo Bulls Football / 2018 Win Total For UB Football
« on: August 09, 2018, 12:02:07 PM »
Last year we won six games.  I ran the poll last year and the pre-season predictions were as follows:

N = 19

Mode:  4 - 5 wins
Median:   4 - 5 wins
Mean (weighted):  3.34 wins

Let's see what the fan base thinks about things this year.

2
During the last several months there has been a lot of optimism surrounding our UB Bulls football team for this fall.

Someone that has a less optimistic view posted a MAC East report recently and it is worth a read.

Note that if you prefer to make "a good thing even better" (as per Lisa Simpson), Bovada has UB's win total o/u at 6.5.  I don't think I have read a single prediction from any fans that gave us less than 7 wins

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/81175/553/team-previews

3
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: 2018-2019 Schedules
« on: August 06, 2018, 05:49:20 PM »
I think this is overstated, the current decision for G5 schools is whether to continue playing all sports or to cut down to your sport minimum and reinvest in Football and Basketball.  UB already made that decision.

The tv money in football is too good, the exposure, the auxiliary benefits, (football season is during application season) and ultimately, the attendance is the best, even at UB 6 games at 20k = 120k fans vs basketball's 15 games at 3k = 45k fans.

When it comes to Bona vs UB, Bona spends 1.2 million more than UB on Men's Basketball annually per EADA reports.

But based on their resources, Bona's spending represents 5.75% of their endowment and their per student cost is $1,642

UB's spending represents .34% of their endowment and their per student cost is $72. They'd only need to increase per student spending by $40 to bridge the gap between UB and Bona.

1.  It is my contention that while UB addressed an issue in the short-term, the football question is going to come up over and over again.  Nothing has been addressed...only delayed..with those programs UB eliminated as a temporary fix.
2.  I am not sure why you are quoting revenues for b-ball or football without any commentary on the costs.
3.  What is the relationship (without cherry picking examples) of enrollment and football success?  Does that study exist?
4.  What does the endowment have to do with anything?  Truly, I am asking, since a university doesn't have one endowment, but has many, many funds that are endowed for specific purposes.

4
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: 2018-2019 Schedules
« on: August 05, 2018, 10:16:53 AM »
Regarding the Gonzaga vs UB comparison, if you listed all of the ways UB and Gonzaga are alike and all the ways they are different, the differences would be long and the similarities would be short -- even considering basketball.

Football at the non-P5 level is going to be different ten years from now then it is now.  That's just a fact, considering decreased state appropriations, increased expenses, greater scrutiny of expenses, etc.  The UAB example is not going to be the norm (where football is resurrected).  There will be important G5 programs that close or move down a level.  it is happened now in some other sports (like what happened at UB) and will, eventually, impact football.  It is not a question of "if", but a question of "when".

UB has a decision to make soon about football, as do all of the G5 schools.  The financial model where it competes with P5 with less resources is just not sustainable anymore -- it really never was, but now that states are providing a shrinking amount of subsidy (and putting caps on tuition), hard decisions have to be made.

I can't believe I am writing this, but focusing more resources on basketball and looking for a more competitive conference (like the A-10) is worthy of exploration, considering the future.  I am not saying we should go this route, but it needs to be considered.

I always thought UB would (eventually) end up in a P5 conference.  It was the 'sleeping giant'...the public institution in New York State and, thus, would have a "powerhouse" sports program.  For a variety of reasons, that hasn't happened and, as I get older, I just don't see it on the horizon anymore.  I would like to be wrong, but I don't think I am.

 

5
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: 2018-2019 Schedules
« on: August 02, 2018, 04:47:49 PM »
Also, why does the schedule on the website say we're playing Southern Illinois twice? Is that a type-o?

No...a home and home.  It happens every now and then. I am sure each situation is somewhat unique and not necessarily ideal.

6
On another note, any scuttlebut on the reason for Hamlet's transfer?

I like to imagine that it's not coincidence that he was at UB for a year and then decides to transfer a handful of days after Segu shows up.  Maybe he was concerned about the outlook for his playing time?

Maybe.  Segu is going to be something else...same with Williams.  Going to be an exciting year!

7
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: Playing WVU rumor?
« on: May 06, 2018, 04:10:54 PM »
Really like what I’m hearing for OOC so far. Hopefully a decent early season tourney as well. Those trips are great for team building imo. Finally beating the Bonnies next year will help as well

Dare to dream!  Winning in the Reilly Center?

Way too lazy to look it up but I do believe our last win over the Bonnies was at the Reilly Center.
*sigh*

Our last MBB win in Olean was over 100 years ago

So what you are saying is that...we're due.

8
I agree...guys leave programs for a variety of reasons, with playing time being near the top (if not the top).  The guys we are bringing in, presumably, were told that they have an opportunity for quality minutes right from the start.  You don't bring in another player like Bearden who wants/needs the ball.  If he goes somewhere else (other than WKU), I hope it is not a MAC team!

9
From his video, expect some three point attempts and dunks off misses.  Not sure about his defense (beyond the blocks). 

10
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: Playing WVU rumor?
« on: April 12, 2018, 03:12:19 PM »
Game day is Friday November 9.

Wow...that's early.  Can I assume that is the first game of the year?   Sorry, WVU, to make you guys 0 - 1 right off the bat.

11
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: James Reese V to Transfer from UB
« on: April 11, 2018, 05:47:30 PM »
I kind of saw this happening.  If he really wanted to get minutes playing college basketball at his position, it was going to be difficult without injury to others.    So then the question is:  do you want to get only a few minutes a game as a sophomore (and/or junior) with, hopefully, getting more minutes as senior...or...go to a place where you think you'll be able to play more?  My guess is he ends up a little closer to home.

Good luck to him in the future.

12
Basketball Recruiting / Re: UB hard after Center Carlos Curry
« on: April 08, 2018, 09:03:01 AM »
Here's the thing, though.  I love the fact that the fan base is so engaged that we are having these types of discussions (i.e. about the coach moving on).  Almost all schools (remember...there are like 350 D1 teams) are at risk for their coach jumping ship to the next job when they have a good season or two.  Nature of the business.   But it is GREAT the fan base is still discussing this since it shows their interest and passion.

Of course, calling someone "pathetic" for having this type of discussion reeks of someone not being in touch with the reality of the situation.

1.  All (I assume) want Oats to stay.

2.  The cost to keep him, should he do well next year and conferences come calling, would be outside what UB and the MAC provides.

3.   Just because a coach leaves does not mean the recruits will automatically leave and follow him (or decommit to go elsewhere).  This is where having an in-house replacement is a good strategy for MAC teams.  You won't keep them all, but you may keep what you need.  Truly, discussing succession if/when the coach leaves is just plain smart business.  Nothing more.  See item #1, however. 

4.   The Mark Few's of the world are very few and far between.  He has built a dynasty there because his teams (now) have so much more talent than the rest of the conference (in almost every year) that their path to the WCC championship game is very easy.  Success breeds success and he recruits off that.  Could that happen with UB?  Sure...imagine UB out-talents their opponents by a wide margin every year and their pathway to the championship game is easy.  However, that is very unlikely (but not impossible).

5.   Like the two OOC games already -- Marquette and West Virginia.  Keep them coming.  Maybe we can get a 1:1 with a mid-tier power school.

Go Bulls!

13
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: Odds on keeping FLJ and NO
« on: March 23, 2018, 02:16:28 PM »
Gotta be a difficult decision. Chance to cash in with life-changing money, but knowing that you're signing up for a horrendous situation. That said, if Oats is the coach we think he is, he may turn that program around and continue to move up the ladder.

Alternative: wait one more year, hopefully achieve the same level of success, potentially receive a better offer at a more stable program which would not represent a Herculean task to turn around. Downside- let's say we have a rash of injuries and the wheels come off. What if this opportunity never comes again?

On the administrative side, just hope they have a plan of succession to allow our program to continue to grow.


Here is the thing, though.  Pitt was obviously horrible this year.  But that rebuilding job is going to take something.  They are rebuilding in the ACC, not the OVC. 

I would like to see someone do some research on when was the last time a team won 0 games in conference in the ACC and how long it took them to make it to the NCAA tournament.  I would think that only bottom feeders couldn't manage to win a game in the ACC and they were probably bad for many years.  Maybe Wake Forest?


[Time elapses]

Okay...I have checked.  Wake won 0 conference games in 1985 and made the tournament five years later.  I can't think of any team that would have lost 0 games in the ACC other than Wake.

14
General Discussion / Re: New AD announced at 11am 3/21
« on: March 21, 2018, 11:49:36 AM »
Excuse my ignorance, but please share your ways of “educated surfing”? We all know that you are very close to the administration, but there is no possible way to have known this without inside information.

I did not have any contact with anyone in the Athletics Department or the Search Committee.

Figured it out on twitter.

There are many examples of this sort of leak on Twitter with things that are decided/agreed to, but not announced yet (e.g. a family member changing information on their bio, changing certain pictures, etc.)   


15
Buffalo Bulls Basketball / Re: Excellent Oats interview.
« on: March 20, 2018, 11:12:22 PM »
I would be shocked if Oats left now.  He really, really wants to coach next year's team and, I think, he feels they may have an opportunity for a q1 or q2 win. 

If all goes well for UB and they make the tourney again...he gone.  And that would be okay.

I am excited for those posts in the summer where some of the posters on this site try to figure out who is getting minutes.

Go Bulls!

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